Melaka Election: Harapan Says Ilham Centre Forecast Is Not Final as Survey Puts BN-PN Ahead in 24 Seats

MELAKA, November 13, 2026 – Pakatan Harapan (PH) says it still believes it can spring a surprise in Saturday’s Melaka state election, and does not accept a projection by research firm Ilham Centre that the coalition is comfortably placed in only two seats as a final picture of the result.

PKR youth wing (Angkatan Muda Keadilan, AMK) chief Muhammad Kamil Abdul Munim said findings from several research bodies, including Ilham Centre and Merdeka Center, contradicted one another, Bernama reported. He said the power to decide the election rested with the people and voters, not with research bodies measuring current sentiment.

“Sentiment studies are based on current sentiment across all platforms, whether face-to-face surveys or studies on social media… those are their findings and their views,” said Muhammad Kamil, who is also political secretary to the Finance Minister. “Never belittle the will and wisdom of the people. Through Muafakat Harapan we keep moving for the rest of today to make sure our work and strategy on the ground continue, so that we can convince voters,” he said.

He was speaking to reporters at Kampung Pinang A in Klebang after a short meeting with a group of paddy farmers, which was also attended by PH’s candidate for the Kelebang state seat, Farzana Hayani Mohd Nasir. He said that in the final hours of campaigning PH needed to convince Melaka voters to make a change, not for the benefit of particular individuals but for the good of the state’s people.

Muhammad Kamil said PH would do its utmost to win a simple majority of 15 seats to form the state government. He described the response during the campaign as positive, especially among young voters including Gen Z, and said he believed many voters had yet to decide. “We are doing everything we can to win back as much support as possible from Melaka voters… God willing, a miracle can happen. In politics, nothing stays static,” he said.

In findings released on Friday, Ilham Centre projected that Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) were ahead in 24 of the 28 state seats. The firm placed PH in a comfortable position in its two traditional seats of Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir, and classified Ayer Keroh and Kesidang, which PH previously held, as closely fought, according to reports by Free Malaysia Today, Sinar Harian and Astro Awani.

Ilham Centre said the main factors behind the BN-PN position were the consolidation of Malay votes, strong morale among party workers and acceptance of the state government. It said its findings showed 91 per cent of PN supporters were willing to transfer their votes to BN and 78 per cent of BN supporters to PN. The firm put approval of Chief Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ab Rauf Yusoh at 86 per cent and of the state government at 85 per cent.

The firm said PH had kept its core support among non-Malay and urban voters but had struggled to build a strong central narrative to widen its appeal. It also found that 21 per cent of voters under 30 were undecided when the survey was carried out. Ilham Centre said the fieldwork ran from November 1 to 12 and covered 805 respondents across all 28 seats, with a margin of error of 3.45 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.

Projections by research firms are not results, and the outcome will be decided at the ballot box. PH is contesting 24 of the 28 seats. The Election Commission (EC) has said 675,166 ordinary voters are eligible to vote on Saturday (November 14), when 79 candidates, including three independents, are contesting. Campaigning ends at 11.59pm on Friday.

Source : Bernama, Free Malaysia Today, Sinar Harian, Astro Awani

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