Credit : Bernama Business's X
KUALA LUMPUR, November 4, 2026 – BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to keep its overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75 per cent at its monetary policy decision on Thursday (November 5) and through 2027, citing resilient economic growth and a manageable inflation outlook, Bernama reported.
In a statement, the research house said headline inflation is expected to stay comfortably within BNM’s target range of 1.5 to 2.5 per cent in the near term.
“Nevertheless, we expect BNM to maintain its overnight policy rate at 2.75 per cent through 2027,” BMI said, as quoted by Bernama.
The OPR is the benchmark interest rate set by the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. It guides the rates banks charge on loans such as home and car financing and the returns they pay on deposits, so any change affects household budgets and business borrowing costs. The rate has stood at 2.75 per cent since BNM cut it by 25 basis points in July 2025.
Consumer spending outlook positive
BMI said the outlook for consumer spending remains broadly positive.
“The consumer spending outlook also remains broadly positive, supported by a resilient labour market, with unemployment at 3.1 per cent, and inflation below BNM’s upper target of 2.5 per cent,” it said.
The research house forecast real household spending growth of 4.08 per cent year-on-year in 2026 and 4.07 per cent in 2027. That would take spending to 31.2 per cent and 36.6 per cent above pre-pandemic levels in those two years respectively, according to Bernama.
Pressure from living costs and household debt
BMI also pointed to a mixed picture for the government and households.
“While stronger petroleum revenues and Petronas dividends will support Malaysia’s fiscal position, households will face pressure from tighter fiscal policy and rising living costs,” it said.
It flagged higher food and fuel prices as key risks, noting that food and non-alcoholic beverages make up 25.5 per cent of household spending. Elevated household debt and debt-servicing costs would further limit how fast spending can grow, the research house added.
What a hold would mean
If BMI’s view is correct, borrowers would see no change to their loan repayments from a rate move for more than a year, while savers would continue to earn returns broadly in line with current deposit rates. A steady OPR would also signal that the central bank sees the current setting as appropriate for both growth and price stability.
The outlook comes as the government pushes ahead with Budget 2027, which is being debated in the Dewan Rakyat, and as Malaysians deal with the cost of living, which BMI identified as a pressure point for households.
BNM’s decision is due on Thursday, and the central bank usually explains its decision in a monetary policy statement released on the same day. Market watchers will be looking at the statement for any signal on the direction of rates and on how BNM views risks to growth and inflation in the months ahead.
Source : Bernama
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