WASHINGTON D.C July 7, 2026 – Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has seen a notable rise in prediction market odds for the 2028 U.S. presidential race, according to data from Polymarket highlighted in a widely shared post on Friday.
The account @BRICSinfo posted a chart from the platform’s “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market showing Ocasio-Cortez at 11% and California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 10%, declaring that the New York Democrat and self-described democratic socialist had become the favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The chart captured a moment of momentum for Ocasio-Cortez in the overall election-winner market. As of Friday, Polymarket’s broader Presidential Election Winner 2028 market listed her near Newsom once again, with Ocasio-Cortez at roughly 10.2% and Newsom at 10.4%. Leading the overall field was Vice President JD Vance at 21.3%, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio.
In the more specific Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 market, however, Newsom remains the narrow favorite. Current odds show:
- Gavin Newsom: 18.3%
- Jon Ossoff: 16.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 15.0%
- Kamala Harris: 7.5%
- Pete Buttigieg: 5.0%
The nomination market has traded more than $1.25 billion in volume, reflecting heavy betting interest more than two years before the election.
Ocasio-Cortez’s odds have climbed steadily in recent months from single digits, driven by progressive enthusiasm, high-profile endorsements in the 2026 midterms, and attention from both supporters and critics. Prediction markets are not polls of voters but reflect the collective bets of traders, and they can shift quickly with news or sentiment.
No major Democratic candidate has formally announced a 2028 bid. The field remains wide open, with the first primaries still more than a year and a half away.
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