By Professor Dato Dr Ahmad Ibrahim
It is that COP ritual again. Every year climate activists and governments of the world descend to a chosen location to talk about what next to stop global warming. So far the progress has been slow. The fight against climate change remains in the balance. In November 2025, the world will convene again deep in the Amazon rainforest for COP30, a summit that could finally redeem the broken promises of global climate action or expose them as empty rhetoric. Is it going to be another stalemate or a breakthrough? Everyone is hoping for a breakthrough as the envisaged climate catastrophe is inching closer by the day. Hosted by Brazil in Belém, a gateway city to the vanishing lungs of the planet, this will be no ordinary climate talk. It is a test of whether humanity values survival over short-term greed. Though there is some optimism, the signs say otherwise.
Many agree however the Amazon matters to the climate fight. At least the symbolism is potent. Delegates will meet surrounded by trees that store 200 billion tonnes of carbon while Indigenous guardians, who sustainably manage 80% of Earth’s biodiversity, demand a seat at the table. President Lula aims to leverage this moment, insisting wealthy nations pay their ecological debt. Brazil will push to expand the Amazon Fund to $30B/year to halt deforestation. Anything less, scientists warn, risks triggering the forest’s irreversible collapse into savannah, releasing emissions equal to 15 years of global fossil fuel use. Much of the Amazon are already cleared for cattle and soybean. It is still unclear whether the world is listening. We know, the US, a major carbon emitter, is not. Without the US committing, COP 30 may turn out to be another charade.
The agenda is more than just targets. Many expect two non-negotiable themes will dominate. One is about NDCs 3.0. The 2035 national climate targets due months before COP30 must align with the 1.5°C limit. Expect fireworks as oil states (Saudi Arabia, Russia) clash with sinking island nations over fossil fuel phase-outs. Two is about climate finance justice. The shadow of COP29’s finance deal will loom large. If rich nations again fail to deliver the $100B+/year promised for adaptation and loss/damage, the Global South will brand COP30 a betrayal. The battle lines are drawn. It is nature vs. Net Zero. Corporations pushing “carbon offsets” via Amazon reforestation face accusations of carbon colonialism. Brazil will demand direct funding, not corporate land grabs. There will be the critical minerals tension. Will the EU’s green transition rely on mining the Amazon for nickel and copper? Indigenous groups vow to block “renewable energy colonialism.” The Trump wild card is already in place with the return of a climate-denier president. So COP30 can implode before it begins.
If there is to be success, COP30 must deliver a number of decisions. One is a binding Amazon Pact. This translates into $30B/year to halt deforestation by 2030, co-designed with indigenous communities. Next is the Loss & Damage fund activation. This should be capitalized beyond token sums, with streamlined access for vulnerable states. Fossil fuel accountability is on the success list. A “1.5°C Club” of nations are calling for the commitment to end oil/gas subsidies. There is a warning to Asia though. For Malaysia and Indonesia, COP30 brings acute pressure. Expect scrutiny of palm oil and rubber supply chains under new global deforestation rules. But there’s opportunity too. Agroforestry pioneers could tap climate finance for peatland restoration, if governments act now. What then are the stakes? Climate activists say we’re beyond tipping points. We’re in the era of consequences. The Amazon hosts 10% of Earth’s species, stabilizes continental rainfall, and stores centuries of carbon. If COP30 fails, we don’t just lose a forest, we sacrifice our last buffer against climate chaos. The bottom line, Belém must be the COP where the Global North pays its debts, Iindigenous wisdom leads, and nature is valued as vital infrastructure. Otherwise, COP30 will be remembered as the summit where the world watched the Amazon burn, and did nothing.
The author is affiliated with the Tan Sri Omar Centre for STI Policy Studies at UCSI University and is an Adjunct Professor at the Ungku Aziz Centre for Development Studies, Universiti Malaya.
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