Credit : Reuters' X
HONG KONG, November 6, 2026 — China’s marriage rate for the first nine months of this year fell to its lowest level in 18 years, fuelling concern about declining births and demographic strain in a country where childbearing remains closely tied to marriage, Reuters reported.
Reuters reported on X that the marriage rate in the third quarter tumbled to an 18-year low. A total of 4.65 million couples married from January to the end of September, while 2.08 million couples divorced, according to Ministry of Civil Affairs data published this week, the Reuters report carried by The Straits Times said. Local outlet Yicai said the figure was the lowest in 18 years.
South China Morning Post, citing the same ministry release, put the nine-month total at 4.648 million registrations, down 504,000, or nearly 10 per cent, from a year earlier. Lianhe Zaobao reported divorce registrations of 2.082 million, up 5,000 year on year, and said quarterly marriage declines deepened from 6.2 per cent in the first quarter to 8.7 per cent in the second and 14.9 per cent in the third.
Policy push fails to reverse the slide
Chinese authorities have rolled out family subsidies, childcare support and lower childbirth-related medical costs in recent years, and have pledged to weave youth development into urban planning, housing, healthcare, education and public services. Despite those steps, China now supports more elderly people than children, with the old-age dependency ratio surpassing that of children, Reuters said.
China’s population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025 as the birth rate hit a record low, prompting demographers to warn of further declines. The number of women of reproductive age, defined by the United Nations as 15 to 49, is projected to drop by more than two-thirds to under 100 million by the end of the century, according to the Reuters account.
Independent demographer He Yafu told the South China Morning Post that the nine-month drop made a full-year decline in 2026 the most likely outcome after a rebound in 2025. Chinese media summaries of the ministry data said the 4.648 million figure was the weakest first-nine-months total since quarterly series began in 2008, below even the 4.747 million recorded for the same period in 2024.
Births still tied to wedlock
In China, most births still occur within marriage, so falling wedding registrations are watched closely as a leading indicator for fertility. High housing costs, job insecurity among young adults, the expense of raising children and shifting attitudes toward marriage have all been cited by demographers as drivers of delay or opting out.
Local governments have experimented with cash incentives, shared parental leave and “marriage-plus-tourism” registration services, but the third-quarter plunge suggests those measures have not yet reversed the trend. Policymakers face a narrowing window: cohorts of women now in their twenties and thirties are smaller than those of previous decades because of the long one-child policy era.
Markets and planners are already adjusting to an ageing society that needs more elder-care capacity even as the school-age population shrinks. Further ministry releases for the fourth quarter will show whether the 14.9 per cent third-quarter drop deepens or eases. LNA will continue to follow China’s demographic data and any new family-policy announcements from Beijing.
Credit : Reuters’ X, with reporting from The Straits Times, South China Morning Post, Lianhe Zaobao and Yicai.
About The Author
